Still in Arsenal's Hands
4 min read

Still in Arsenal's Hands

Still in Arsenal's Hands

The result of the North London Derby wasn't what Arsenal fans wanted but with a one-point lead Arsenal still control their own destiny.

Win and you're in

That is the mantra for Arsenal. They have two matches left, win them both and they are in the Champions League. They don't need to worry about results anywhere else, they just need to take care of business and they will finish in the top four for the first time since 2015/16.

Looking at the matches and winning both shouldn't be an outlandish request either. Arsenal play a decent Newcastle (15th best team in my ratings, 10th over the last 10 matches) and one of the worst ever Everton teams (13th in my team ratings, 11th over the last 10 matches).

Against Newcastle Arsenal will go in solid favorites expecting 1.8 points with over 51% to win. The betting odds are roughly in line with that giving Arsenal a 53% chance of winning. The next weekend Arsenal are in a similar spot favored to win 55% of the time.

28% of the time Arsenal don't need any help at all and just wins both of these matches. To help feel a bit better about this, there is also a 55% chance that Spurs drop points somewhere along the way as well giving Arsenal a bit more margin for error of not needing to be perfect.

Arsenal will know before the match Monday what they need to do. At this time I still stand by that while playing Burnley at home seems easy, this could be a tricky match. It comes with a quick turnaround after an emotional match, with a team that is still in a desperate situation to pick up points and will play a style that looks to gum things up because a draw is a perfect result for them.

Week 37 simulated odds

With the three big races still up for grabs (but maybe not as close as the Premier League would have liked) there is still a lot at stake this weekend. We also have a weird scheduling quirk with no Saturday matches due to the FA Cup final.

I have already touched on the first Sunday match and think that will still be trickier than most matches that are 68% in favor of one team. The midday Sunday matches do bring us a relegation fight with Leeds looking at maybe their best chance to save themselves from relegation at home against a Brighton team that doesn't have anything to play for. We also have Manchester City looking to continue to just win out and secure the title against West Ham.

Sunday ends with Everton potentially having the chance to save their season (depending on how Leeds do) where a win could guarantee safety and help potentially make the final match against Arsenal lower tension.

Week 37 wraps up with Liverpool and Southampton, it will be a must-win match for Liverpool but could end being one that doesn't really matter all that much if City can win on Sunday.

Newcastle vs Arsenal

This match will be huge for Arsenal.

Newcastle are a decent team, they started the season as one of the worst teams in the league but recovered nicely playing like a solid upper midtable fringe European level team since January.  

They are still not a great team in season-long metrics with the 16th best attack and the 13th best defense.

Normally Newcastle would be a team that you say, "they have nothing to play for" but I think that this could be a team full of individuals looking to prove that they should be kept long-term with some big spending in the transfer market coming from their new owners.

It won't be an easy match for Arsenal but one that a team that deserves to be in the Champions League should be able to handle.

Detailed Match Odds