Predictions for March and beyond
2 min read

Predictions for March and beyond

I started doing this last month, and it is time to look at how my short term predictions turned out and to make some predictions for the next month and beyond.

Predictions for Feb and beyond
People love to make statements about what they think will and should happen. One of the things that they don’t do is actually put any sort of confidence intervals around it so that you can revisit it and see how you have done. I am not blaming anyone because hey

First how I did here were my transfer window guesses:

Note: It might feel weird due to how I worded things but for things under 50% that came true I am correct and I will do better to word them that way going forward (I will also try to not take the 50/50 guess as much as possible).

Arsenal sign an attacking player on a permanent deal: 25% - ✔️

Arsenal sign a midfield player on a permanent deal: 10% - ✔️

Arsenal will not sign a defensive player on a permanent deal: 99% - ✔️

Arsenal sign an attacking player on a loan deal: 75% - ❌

Arsenal sign a midfield player on a loan deal: 10% - ✔️

Arsenal will not sign a defensive player on a loan deal: 90% - ✔️

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang will not be at the club after the transfer window closes: 80% - ✔️

There will not be any other outgoing moves this window: 90% - ✔️

February Fixture Predictions: (the Wolves home game wasn't scheduled when I made my guesses)

None of the fixtures will be postponed due to COVID: 90% - ✔️

Wolves vs Arsenal Feb 10, Arsenal will win: 55% - ✔️

Arsenal vs Brentford Feb 19, Arsenal will win: 65% - ✔️

Arsenal will get 5 or more points from these fixtures: 90% - ✔️

Overall:

I made 7 guesses that were 90%+, and all 7 happened.

I made 0 guesses that were between 80% and 89%.

I made 2 guesses that were between 70% and 79%, and 1 happened.

I made 1 guess that was between 60% and 69%, and 1 happened.

I made 1 guess that was between 50% and 59%, and 1 happened.

I made further predictions but they were for the end of the season and I will have to wait to see how they turned out.

March Fixtures (with Bonus Wolves guess)

Arsenal vs Wolves Feb 24, Arsenal will win: 55%

Watford vs Arsenal March 6, Arsenal will win: 65%

Arsenal vs Leicester March 13, Arsenal will win: 60%

Arsenal vs Liverpool March 16, Arsenal will lose: 65%

Aston Villa vs Arsenal March 19, Arsenal will win: 55%

Arsenal will get 10 or more points from these fixtures: 80%

Premier League Finish

Arsenal will finish in the top 4: 55%

Arsenal will finish in the top 6: 95%

Arsenal will finish with more than 61 points: 90%

Arsenal will finish with more than 65 points: 60%

Arsenal will NOT finish with 70 or more points: 70%

Arsenal will finish above Tottenham: 60%

Manchester City will win the League: 80%

Newcastle will NOT be relegated: 65%

Everton will NOT be relegated: 75%

Leeds will NOT be relegated: 60%

Antonio Conte will start the 2022/23 season as Tottenham's coach: 55%