Predictions for June and beyond
2 min read

Predictions for June and beyond

It is time to make some guesses again.

May Recap

West Ham vs Arsenal May 1st, Arsenal will win: 55% ✔️

Arsenal vs Leeds United May 8th, Arsenal will win: 65% ✔️

Tottenham vs Arsenal May 12th, Arsenal will get at least a win or draw: 55% ❌

The North London Derby match will be miserable and nervy until the final whistle: 95% (I don't really know how to measure it but I will use my best judgment) ❌(I am giving myself a loss on this one, the red card and early second goal meant this wasn't nervy, it was miserable tho. I should get half a point.

Newcastle Utd vs Arsenal May 16th, Arsenal will get at least a win or draw: 55% (I think it could be a trap game) ❌

Arsenal vs Everton May 22nd, Arsenal will get at least a win or draw: 85% ✔️

Arsenal will get more 10 or more points in May: 60% ❌

Arsenal will finish in the top 4: 65% ❌

Arsenal will finish with more than 65 points: 85% ✔️

Arsenal will finish above Tottenham: 60% ❌

Manchester City will win the League: 75% ✔️

Liverpool will win the Champions League: 60% ❌

Everton will be relegated: 60% ❌

Bukayo Saka finishes the season with 14 or more League goals: 65% ❌

Other Guesses that now have an answer

From April:

Arsenal will finish in the top 4: 65% ❌

Arsenal will finish with more than 65 points: 80% ✔️

Arsenal will finish above Tottenham: 60% ❌

Manchester City will win the League: 60% ✔️

Newcastle will NOT be relegated: 95% ✔️

Everton will be relegated: 55% ❌

Erling Haaland does NOT sign with Arsenal in the summer: 99% ✔️ (remember the brief moment when some people convinced themselves that this wasn't more than a dream)

Still Pending  

Alexandre Lacazette does NOT resign with Arsenal in the summer: 75%

Antonio Conte will start the 2022/23 season as Tottenham's coach: 55%

William Saliba will NOT remain on the Arsenal roster after the summer transfer window closes: 85%

Nicolas Pepe will NOT remain on the Arsenal roster after the summer transfer window closes: 90%

Overall tracking:

These will be the tracking of things that have had a result:

I made 11 guesses that were 90%+, and all 11 happened. 100% overall

I made 4 guesses that were between 80% and 89%, and 4 happened. 100% overall

I made 6 guesses that were between 70% and 79%, and 6 happened. 67% overall

I made 13 guesses that were between 60% and 69%, and 4 happened. 62% overall

I made 8 guesses that were between 51% and 59%, and 4 happened. 50% overall

After a very hot run early, where everything I predicted came true I have come back closer to my own expected odds. Overall I have made 42 guesses, with 31 happening. The average odds I have given these guesses is 72% and I have been right 74% of the time.

June Predictions:

I think that these will probably be transfer-focused because that is what is happening now, which probably means there won't be a lot of results for a while.

Arsenal's Net Transfer Spend will have the club spend more on incoming than outgoings: 90%

Arsenal's gross transfer spending will be less than the £150.68m that was reported on TransferMarkt (also using TransferMarkt): 70%

Arsenal's reported transfer income will be more than £28.26m (using TranferMarkt): 85%

Arsenal's reported transfer income will be less than £70m (using TranferMarkt): 75%

Arsenal will sign Gabriel Jesus: 60%

Arsenal will sign Youri Tielemans: 70%

William Saliba does not agree to a new contract by the start of the new season: 55%

Bukayo Saka signs a new contract by the start of the new season: 80%

Granit Xhaka leaves by the end of the transfer window: 60%