Predictions for August and the 2022-23 Season
2 min read

Predictions for August and the 2022-23 Season

I have been making predictions monthly (mostly, I skipped last month because there wasn't that much to look into yet) and it is time to do this again.

A reminder, for this I make a prediction and also include my certainty around that actually happening. I keep track of how these work out and it helps to get an understanding of how good my intuition and research do for my prognostication.

My predictions from June:

Arsenal's Net Transfer Spend will have the club spend more on incoming than outgoings: 90% ✔️ (technically not decided but I am giving myself this one)

Arsenal's gross transfer spending will be less than the £150.68m that was reported on TransferMarkt (also using TransferMarkt): 70% ❓

Arsenal's reported transfer income will be more than £28.26m (using TranferMarkt): 85% ❓

Arsenal's reported transfer income will be less than £70m (using TranferMarkt): 75% ❓

Arsenal will sign Gabriel Jesus: 60% ✔️

Arsenal will sign Youri Tielemans: 70% ❓

William Saliba does not agree to a new contract by the start of the new season: 55% ❓

Bukayo Saka signs a new contract by the start of the new season: 80% ❓ (I am a little worried this won't be wrapped before the season starts but still feel confident it will happen)

Granit Xhaka leaves by the end of the transfer window: 60% ❓

Other Guesses that now have an answer

Alexandre Lacazette does NOT resign with Arsenal in the summer: 75% ✔️

Antonio Conte will start the 2022/23 season as Tottenham's coach: 55% ✔️ (again technically not decided but the season starts in less than a week and he is the coach with no reports that there will be a sudden change of heart)

Overall tracking:

Most of my June predictions are still pending waiting on the end of the transfer window. I will say that I am pleasantly surprised that William Saliba looks to have been a part of the team and that the 85% mark I put on him not being with the team at the start of the season looks to have been wrong.

Overall I still have a strong track record.

I made 12 guesses that were 90%+, and all 12 happened. 100% overall

I made 5 guesses that were between 80% and 89%, and 4 happened. 80% overall

I made 7 guesses that were between 70% and 79%, and 5 happened. 71% overall

I made 14 guesses that were between 60% and 69%, and 9 happened. 64% overall

I made 9 guesses that were between 51% and 59%, and 5 happened. 56% overall

August Predictions:

Match Predictions:

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, Arsenal will win: 55%

Arsenal vs Leicester City, Arsenal will win: 60%

Bournemouth vs Arsenal: Arsenal will win: 70%

Arsenal vs Fulham: Arsenal will win: 70%

Arsenal vs Aston Villa, Arsenal will win: 60%

Arsenal will win 10 or more points in August: 70%

Arsenal will not lose in August: 55%

Transfer Market Predictions:

Arsenal will have a top 3 total expenditure on transfer fees: 75%

Arsenal will sign or loan another attacking player: 60%

Arsenal will sign or loan another midfield player: 55%

One of Nicolas Pepe, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Héctor Bellerín, or Reiss Nelson, will still be with Arsenal after the transfer window closes: 60%

Season Predictions:

Manchester City will win the Premier League: 65%

Arsenal will improve on their 69 points from last season: 65%

Arsenal will make the Champions League: 51%

Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest will BOTH be relegated: 75%

Manchester United will finish 6th or worse: 65%

Newcastle will finish 10th or better: 55%