Observations after two weeks
2 min read

Observations after two weeks

One of the hardest parts about a new season is having to wait for the sample of matches played to grow large enough to where what we are seeing is something more than random noise and a reflection of the strength of the schedule and something that might actually be real.

So this will be a mixture of things that I have noticed watching combined with some stats.

Arsenal have won their opening two matches with a combined scoreline of 6 to 2 with an xG of 3.6 to 1.6. On the weighted xG chart they are way out in the top right only behind Manchester City in overall performance.

This mostly matches my eyes. Against Crystal Palace, I think there were three phases, the first Arsenal dominated with the ball, the second they dominated the space without the ball, and the last they mostly sat back and defended. Against Leicester, it was a pretty complete performance with just a couple of defensive mistakes to blemish a pretty score sheet.

Overall against the 12th and 8th rated teams Arsenal have come out looking like a good team, with 1.4 and 2.7 expected points based on the expected goals for the matches. Arsenal's 4.1 expected points is good for second overall so far this season.

The part that makes me feel especially good about this team is that this is a solid continuation of what we saw in the preseason and at times last season when Arsenal was at full strength.

It is also interesting that the performances for Arsenal have also impressed my simulation model, with Arsenal improving from a 1.22 rating, 5th behind Chelsea and Tottenham at 1.30, to a 1.29 still 5th but much closer to Chelsea and Tottenham at 1.31.