Early KPIs for Arsenal in 2022/23
2 min read

Early KPIs for Arsenal in 2022/23

I have been thinking about this since the season ended. I have been trying to come up with my initial goals for next season.

I think where I am leaning towards right now is looking at trying to find the average of between 3rd and 4th place in the Premier League going back to 11/12 for the key metrics.

I think I want to track the same metrics that I did last season, points, goals, expected goals, deep completions, shots, and field tilt.

Points: The average for 3rd/4th is 1.89 points per match, which is just under 72 points. I am going to round up and say 72 points (1.89 ppm) will be my minimum expectation.

Goals: The average for 3rd/4th is 1.67 non-penalty goals, that's 63 goals. I think that's a little on the low end but I will start with that.

Goals Allowed: The average for 3rd/4th is 0.97 non-penalty goals allowed, that's 37 goals.

Goal Difference:  The average for 3rd/4th is 0.7 non-penalty goal difference per match, that's a non-pen goal difference of plus 27.

Expected Goals: The average for 3rd/4th is 1.72 non-penalty expected goals, that's 65 expected goals. Last season's target for me was 1.54 or better.

Expected Goals Against: The average for 3rd/4th is 1.06 non-penalty expected goals, that's 40 expected goals allowed. Last season's target for me was 1.25 or better.

Expected Goal Difference: The average for 3rd/4th is 0.66 non-penalty expected goals difference, that's plus 25 expected goals difference. Last season's target for me was 0.3 or better.

Open Play Shots For: The average for 3rd/4th is 11.4 open play shots per match. Last season's target for me was 10.5 or better.

Open Play Shots Against: The average for 3rd/4th is 6.8 open play shots allowed per match. Last season's target for me was 20.5 or better.

Open Play Shot Difference: The average for 3rd/4th is 4.6 open play shots difference per match. Last season's target for me was 2.3 or better.

Deep Completions For: The average for 3rd/4th is 24.8 Deep Completions per match. Last season's target for me was 10.5 or better.

Deep Completions Against: The average for 3rd/4th is 14.4 Deep Completions allowed per match. Last season's target for me was 15.0 or better.

Deep Completion Difference: The average for 3rd/4th is 10.4 Deep Completions difference per match. Last season's target for me was 3.6 or better.

Field Tilt: The average for 3rd/4th is 62.5% share of field tile per match. Last season's target for me was 54% or better.

As of right now these feel like doable but ambitious targets for Arsenal. This would be another step forward for the team over a full season but also would be under shooting what the team was able to do when they were healthy and able to put the preferred first 11 on the field from December to March.

This is my preliminary list, but as of right now I don't really see things changing (baring some really big spending in the market from either Arsenal or teams around them).